The Great Gas Conspiracy (A Real Life Whodunit?)

You can’t make this up!

Seriously, it reads like some kind of terrorist story line only Jack Bauer (of “24” fame) could foil.

Here’s a quick recap…

Last week, on September 26, both the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines (parallel pipelines that run directly from Russia to Germany) experienced a sharp drop in pressure…

The operator of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline reported a sudden drop in pressure overnight on Monday, with a spokesperson suggesting there could have been a leak.

Sweden’s Maritime Authority said on Tuesday it had warned of two leaks on Nord Stream 1 in Swedish and Danish waters.

Two pipelines. Three leaks. According to reporting in the Asia Times:

Three separate pipeline breaches are apparent, essentially ruling out the possibility of a technical fault.

US News added:

Analysts and experts say such leaks are very rare and Nord Stream AG has called leaks on three strings of the offshore gas pipelines “unprecedented”.

Seismologists from Denmark and Sweden reported they had registered two explosions coming from the region of the leaks that Monday saying, “the explosions were in the water, not under the seabed.” They registered with magnitudes of 1.9 and 2.3 on the Richter scale.

So what happened?

Unleash the Speculation Hounds

The sheer size of the gas pipes — each section’s steel walls are over 1.5 inches thick and coated with another 4 inches of concrete — and the fact that there were multiple leaks, makes an accidental failure pretty unlikely.

Given that, and the fact we’ll probably never know for sure, here’s where the sabotage fingers are pointing…

Ukraine and Poland took to blaming Russia…

Kyiv’s presidential advisor Mikhaylo Podolyak said on Twitter: ‘The large-scale gas leak is nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards the EU.’

Poland’s Deputy Foreign Minister Paweł Jabłoński: 

…it was clear that Russia is no longer having any profits from this, so damaging this and using it as a false pretense for an escalation of the war would be something out of Russia’s playbook… 

It makes little sense that Russia would actually destroy its own infrastructure. Especially since neither were pumping gas to Europe; NS1 had been shut down by Russia and NS2 was suspended by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz before it launched. On the other hand, maybe Putin understands the energy relationship between Russia and Germany will never be the same so what the hell?

There was speculation that Ukraine and Poland could be the culprits given that NS2 pumped gas directly to Germany letting Russia bypass paying both countries huge transit fees. 

But neither Poland nor Ukraine really have the technology it would take to sabotage a pipeline over 250 feet under the Baltic Sea.

Then there was speculation the US was behind it…

In early February President Biden said at a press conference, “If Russia invades…then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”

UnderSecretary of State Victoria Nuland said, “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”

Of course, the Pentagon denied that speculation to Fox News reporter Jennifer Griffin:

“My question at the Pentagon briefing today: Can you rule out that the U.S. was involved? Senior Military Official: ‘Yeah, we were absolutely not involved.’

So much for that theory.

What’s the Bottom Line?

The potentially permanent damage of these pipelines takes 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas out of play annually. The ramifications of this geopolitical game of energy “chicken” are serious.

It will put upward pressure on energy prices once again. And it puts the EU’s energy security in serious doubt. 

Back in May I speculated on the possibility that the EU would make the US their new energy BFF. Now, without Russia providing for Europe’s energy needs, that means the US will remain Europe’s biggest LNG supplier for the long term. Which could actually be a positive for our increasingly bleak-looking economy. 

That is, if the US is willing to make nice with our own fossil fuel industry…

Make the trend your friend,

Bob Byrne
Editor, Streetlight Daily