January 31, 2023 For over the last year I’ve probably been sounding like the merchant of doom. I started warning about the secular inflation we’re currently suffering through since all the way back in November 2021. I’ve talked about how economic reports are fudged to show a rosier picture than what the prevailing reality indicates. …
January 27, 2023 Earnings season is back! And everyone is on the edge of their seats waiting to see whether a widespread earnings recession is finally starting to set in. Most of the companies I’ve been watching have been pulling their guidance in, as many have expected. But they’re not falling off a cliff. Frankly, …
January 26, 2023 Last week the US Census Bureau reported that retail sales had fallen 1.1% (m/m) after falling 1% the month before. Could this be indicating yet another crack in the strength of the economy? I believe so — but not for the reason you might think. And I think it’s even worse than …
January 24, 2023 Bad news out of Davos, Switzerland last week… When the global 0.001%, uber-elite jet to one of the most beautiful European resort towns only to hang their heads and bemoan the state of the global economy, you know things are bad. Most of their reason for glumness, not surprisingly, was summed up …
January 20, 2023 Theater season opened this week with two blockbuster shows kicking off the program. If there’s one thing the high and mighty love, it’s a good show. Unfortunately not all political theater ends with the same happy (or at least tidy) endings as most Broadway productions do. The two shows opening the 2023 …
January 19, 2023 Last September I wrote about an obscure economic report that was threatening to signal trouble. It’s called the Purchasing Managers Index or PMI. You can re-read the whole post here, or if you want the TL;DR version… PMI is a critical number because purchasing managers are typically at the center of their …
January 17, 2023 One year! That was all it took. One lousy year! What am I talking about? Last October I wrote about the shame the government had brought upon itself when it was forced to increase the debt ceiling… But just last October, the debt ceiling — the borrowing limit above which the Treasury …
January 13, 2023 Sometimes I feel like I’m a little unfair to the Fed… I make them seem like the Keystone Cops of monetary policy. Truth is, their job is hard. I talk about how they use “Fed-speak” — the ability to spew a lot of words without really saying anything — to address economic …
January 12, 2023 There’s a saying in the investment game that goes: “Don’t confuse brains with a bull market.” It was never more true than back in the Tech Bubble. Everyone and their brother was uncovering the next big tech unicorn. Put $500 into anything with “dotcom” connected to its name and you were rich. …
January 10, 2023 There are dozens of memorable little “guidelines” about how the market performs during certain times of the year. Maybe you’ve heard of a few. I’m talking about nuggets like: “Sell in May and go away…”“The June Swoon…”“The October Effect…” (which has a cousin called “The September Effect”) “The Santa Claus Rally…” These are …
